In This Blog
50% + 1: Strategy for Democrats to Win
MAGA Fail: A Turning Point for Rural Democrats and Moderates
Predictions: Congressional Districts 4 and 5
Potpourri
Monday July 29 Nation-wide Call to Support Kamala Harris! Speakers: Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. Steny H. Hoyer, Rep. Adam Schiff, International Union of Painters and Allied Trades President Jimmy Williams, David Hogg, Founder, Leaders we Deserve, George Goehl, Longtime Rural Organizer and Author, Fundamentals of Organizing. Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, Actor Josh Gad Actor Rory O’Malley, Actor Michael Kelly, Actor Misha Collins, Author Scott Galloway, Actor/Singer Josh Groban, Actor Bradley Whitford, Comedian Paul Scheer, Actor Mark Hamill, Actor/Producer Mark Ruffalo, Actor Sean Astin….and more to be announced shortly. Register
50% + 1
Winning an election comes down to a simple formula: 50% plus one vote. In most rural American elections, Republicans tend to dominate. Democrats, while always present, often struggle to connect with moderates and independents. Reaching that crucial 50% +1 vote is challenging but not impossible.
The Similar Strategies of Republicans and Democrats
Both parties use similar strategies: activating their base and canvassing homes with a political lean in their favor. Democrats, however, tend to avoid canvassing Republican-leaning households due to safety concerns. In contrast, the more aggressive MAGA wing of the Republican party has no qualms about confronting people in public places.
Breaking Out with a New Strategy
To secure the additional voters needed to win, Rural Americans United focuses on three key tactics: immunization against far-right rhetoric, education and representation, and ballot harvesting.
#1. Immunization Against Far-Right Rhetoric
Reaching newly registered voters quickly is essential. By providing initial contact, alternative information, and a path for ongoing dialogue, we can prevent young voters from being overwhelmed by MAGA's pervasive influence in rural communities.
Our Newly Registered Voter Outreach program ensures that every newly registered voter in Central and Eastern Washington receives additional information on voting. With over thirty thousand new voters expected in the region by the next election, this group represents a significant voting bloc that can help us reach our goal of 50% +1.
#2. Education and Representation
In rural areas like Yakima County, 80% of people have never heard a pro-Democratic message. This lack of representation leads many Democrats and progressives to feel isolated and hopeless.
Rural Americans United launched Central Washington’s first pro-Democratic messaging campaign, delivering over twenty million radio impressions. Many people heard a Democratic message for the first time. We aim to continue this effort by purchasing existing radio and print media outlets, believing that reinstating the Fairness Doctrine is crucial for promoting sensible politics and countering far-right misinformation.
Reenergizing Democrats and providing independents and moderate Republicans with new perspectives is vital for creating an informed electorate.
#3. Ballot Harvesting
Ballot harvesting involves collecting ballots from voters at non-official locations, a practice Republicans excel at but Democrats rarely use. In Washington State, the laws on ballot harvesting are ambiguous, allowing almost anyone to collect ballots.
Encouraging ballot harvesting at churches, community centers, bars, and clubs can significantly increase voter turnout. Democrats often focus on ballot parties, but it's even more effective to have people bring their ballots to places they already visit, incentivized by rewards like no entrance fee, free food and drinks.
Security is crucial. MAGA supporters may try to disrupt and discredit the process, so be prepared for tactics like blocking access to deposit boxes or attempting to steal them.
Rural Americans United is partnering with music venues and industry professionals to create ballot harvest events, especially targeting youth voters.
The Path Forward
Simply getting out the vote isn't enough. Progressives and moderates must find new ways to engage a larger portion of the potential voter base. By focusing on cost-effective and convenient methods, we can close the gap and reach our goal of 50% +1. Rural Americans United is committed to this mission, and with the collective efforts of dedicated organizations and individuals, we can make a significant impact.
Our work is made possible by the generous donations of our readers. We have no benefactor or additional funding source.
Made me smile!
Democrats and moderates in rural communities received a significant boost last week. President Joe Biden once again demonstrated what it means to be a true American by prioritizing the country over party and personal gain. He stepped aside and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidency. This endorsement united Democrats, moderates, and dignified Republicans behind her campaign. Groups that are often marginalized or politically apathetic, such as youth, women, and people of color, rallied in support of her.
The most important development for rural communities, however, was the exposure of the MAGA influence in our small towns. The stark contrast between the MAGA ideology and what is right and just has become more apparent.
In Washington, the State GOP recently declared that democracy is dead and vowed to do everything to end it. They endorsed the most extreme candidate for Congressional District 4, Jerrod Sessler, revealing the depth of their loyalty to Trump. In Yakima County, Republican chair Matt Brown announced that the local Republican Party is a Trump group. This open declaration has exposed their overestimation of their support and revealed their position on the wrong side of public opinion on many issues.
It is now easier to highlight the difference between a rational, just narrative and Trump’s cult of corruption and hate. Previously, it was challenging to define their platform clearly due to their concealed intentions. But now, the distinction is clear. If you are endorsed by the Republican Party, you are fully aligned with Trump. There’s no more nuance; you simply need to say, “They are a Trumper.” Any Republican trying to distance themselves from Trump’s un-American agenda will struggle. They will expend so much energy trying to prove they are different from their own party, and that is a campaign doomed to fail.
The Crystal Ball Is Broken
You might have seen some of my election predictions in the papers recently—pay them no mind. Why? As I heard on a recent Zoomcast of Red Wine and Blue, one of the commentators said, “it is their (the media) job to distract you.” This is what we at Rural Americans United have been trying to convey with our Silence = Denied pledge. Don't get caught up in the media's dramatic stories—they’re just trying to sell views and clicks. It's human nature to be drawn to anger, fear, and uncertainty, but we can rise above it.
Observations on Congressional Districts 4 and 5
Congressional District 4
I've mentioned that the Congressional District 4 race could become the most expensive race in Eastern Washington history. With Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse seemingly having unlimited access to funds, he could easily pull in $12-15 million if needed. Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley proved she could raise twenty million dollars in her 2022 Senate run. But will this race really be a money showdown?
Looking at the FEC reports, it seems both Newhouse and Smiley are slow-walking their fundraising. Newhouse is just under one million dollars, and Smiley is at about five hundred thousand dollars—hardly a money-heavy race. It makes one wonder if Newhouse is being given one last run, and Smiley will be rewarded later, perhaps having her past campaign debts paid off and setting herself up for another run.
What's clear is that MAGA and Jerrod Sessler do not enter the equation. Newhouse has a pattern of running attack ads against his biggest adversary before the primary, and this time it's Smiley. Meanwhile, Sessler, a dyed-in-the-wool MAGA, is backed by the Washington State GOP and Yakima County Republicans, both of which have fully aligned as a party of Trump. Despite this, his fundraising hasn't changed since 2022; he remains almost completely self-funded. This shows the Washington State MAGA group as a paper tiger—intimidating but ultimately a small group of bullies with little real power.
Congressional District 5
A Path to Victory: Flipping Congressional District 5
Three million six hundred and fifty-nine thousand dollars! That's how much money retiring House Republican for Congressional District 5, Catherine McMorris Rodgers, has raised since the last election. Surprisingly, she has raised more money after announcing her retirement than incumbent House Democrat for Congressional District 8, Kim Schrier. According to FEC reports as of March 30, 2024, this highlights significant political investment in Congressional District 5. But here’s where it gets interesting: despite these figures, there is strong hope for Democrats, and a clear path to victory lies ahead.
Republicans appear heavily invested in this district, but the reality is that the RNC, like the DNC, usually won't pour in significant resources unless the stakes are incredibly high—think ten million dollars high. This suggests that, for now, the national party might not be focusing on this race. If that remains true, it levels the playing field between top Democrats and Republicans, opening the door for us to make a real impact locally.
The latest FEC reports, as of July 15th, reveal a promising scenario: House Democrat Congressional District 5 candidates Carmela Conroy and Bernadine Bank have both raised close to three hundred thousand dollars. Combined, this puts them nearly on par with their biggest Republican opponent, Mike Baumgartner. This is crucial. If the Democratic ticket wasn’t split among Conroy, Bank, and a third perennial candidate, their combined fundraising would have already surpassed the top Republican contender. This financial parity is a game-changer and underscores a powerful narrative: we have the resources and the momentum to flip this district.
But this is more than just about money—this is about community, passion, and the unwavering belief that together, we can make a difference. If we rally behind the Democrat who emerges from the primary, uniting all Democrats and moderates in Central and Eastern Washington, we can generate the energy needed to secure a victory in November.
Reflecting on past campaigns provides us with valuable lessons. In 2018, Democratic Spokane Mayor Lisa Brown ran a fierce campaign against Catherine McMorris Rodgers and came close to unseating her. National support arrived late in the game, just as a Democratic victory seemed within reach. Unfortunately, by then, it was too late to effectively utilize the influx of resources. But we’ve learned from this.
The key to winning Congressional District 5 lies in our hands. Let’s take this challenge head-on. Let’s harness the spirit of determination and hope that defines us as Democrats. Let’s prove that when we come together, we can overcome any obstacle and achieve victory. Congressional District 5 is within our reach, and together, we can make history.
Potpourri
Monday July 29 Nation-wide Call to Support Kamala Harris! Speakers: Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. Steny H. Hoyer, Rep. Adam Schiff, International Union of Painters and Allied Trades President Jimmy Williams, David Hogg, Founder, Leaders we Deserve, George Goehl, Longtime Rural Organizer and Author, Fundamentals of Organizing. Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, Actor Josh Gad Actor Rory O’Malley, Actor Michael Kelly, Actor Misha Collins, Author Scott Galloway, Actor/Singer Josh Groban, Actor Bradley Whitford, Comedian Paul Scheer, Actor Mark Hamill, Actor/Producer Mark Ruffalo, Actor Sean Astin….and more to be announced shortly. Register Shared by Tom Jones
For more information on how the name of the organization came to be read.
Support for Minority Farmers Shared by Ginger Baird https://www.usda.gov/partnerships/advisory-committee-on-minority-farmers
The ugliness of hate that is the Union Gospel Mission https://www.yakimaherald.com/news/nation_and_world/nation/appeals-court-hears-yakima-homeless-shelters-challenge-to-wa-anti-discrimination-law/article_655d18e3-4591-5a3b-9eb3-0d18a9e5f5a0.html
Heard Out and About
I am really excited to hear my new adult in the house go from ‘nah, I’m going to sit out this election. It’s literally the same choices as 4 yrs ago. Our Gen Z votes don’t matter. Now, she’s excited and talking about all the shares and videos and long time facts about Kamala since Sunday.
My wife and I danced around the living room like we were drunk when we heard (Kamala running for President)
Thank you for reading,
Much success,
Doug
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